Reaction to the Obamacare Decision

So, I don’t mean to boast but I got the Obamacare decision pretty much bang on. In fact I did a better job than CNN and Fox News, who declared the wrong result 5 minutes before it was officially announced. I bet my imaginary money on a 5-4 decision in favour of Obamacare, said that either Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Kennedy would be the deciding vote and that the legislation wouldn’t survive unscathed. When it came down to it, the decision was 5-4 in favour with Chief Justice Roberts providing the crucial vote but also providing Obamacare opponents with some ammo. I got it right. Yay me.

Let me provide a few thoughts on what happened:

1. It passed! It actually passed!!: The reality is that all Americans will have healthcare coverage by the end of the decade and that if they don’t want it, they can pay an amount to cover costs. Though not perfect legislation (I supported the overall bill but had issues with parts of it) it is wonderful to be able to write that.

2. Obama can breathe a sigh of relief...: One of the major achievements of Obama’s Presidency is the Healthcare Bill. He promised it in his election campaign and has delivered it in time for his re-election campaign. It has been reported that in the 24hrs after the decision Obama’s campaign took in $4.6m and no doubt many people now want him to be at the helm as the legislation comes into action (which happens in several stages over the next few years, though going beyond the length of the next elected Presidential term). The reality is as well that Obama can take the high ground on this issue as whilst the Republicans oppose Obamacare, they have no clear alternative legislation that they can agree on

3.....sort of: As much as Obama can celebrate his success, those who oppose the legislation will be galvanised into action. Their last tactic has failed – Obamacare is now officially constitutional legislation. However, they can simply repeal the law through a Congressional majority or a Presidential Executive Order if Mitt Romney is elected in November (or through him blocking funding or ignoring the bill, which, surprisingly, could work). So Obamacare is not completely safe. Again the issue would be that the GOP hasn’t got a plan to replace it with plus Romney would have to overcome the negative headlines that would appear. ‘Rich White Man Bans Funding Crucial Operations for Poor People’ is probably not a vote winner!!

4. Chief Justice Roberts supported Obamacare but still hurt Obama: One of the crucial issues in the legislative arguments surrounding the passing of Obamacare was whether the personal payments that would have to be made for not paying for insurance (the ‘individual mandate’) were a ‘tax’ or a ‘penalty’. Obama and co. argued the latter. ‘Tax’ is not a vote winning slogan and it would be used by his opponents to claim he was raising taxes on the middle class, something he had promised to not do. Opponents of Obama called it a tax to annoy Obama and win popular support.

Why mention all this? Well, Roberts supported the bill because he saw it as a ‘tax’. His decision in favour was based on the right found in the US Constitution for Congress to raise taxes. For all you geeks out there, the Court invoked the Taxing and Spending Clause found in Article 1, Section 8, Clause 1 of the (brilliant) US Constitution. Interesting, huh.....?

So, Obama won the support of the Court but, because of Roberts’ written decision (all Supreme Court decisions require written statements – those who voted against Obamacare produced a stunner of an attack on federal legislation) he is now having to accept the ‘individual mandate’ is a tax, major ammunition to the Romney campaign. Every silver lining has a cloud

5. The future of the Supreme Court: whilst Roberts handed Obama a bitter pill, he still surprised many commentators by voting in favour. Most expected Justice Kennedy, the most liberal of the conservative Justices, to be the deciding vote in favour. I must confess I suspected Kennedy would vote in favour of the bill and only backed Roberts as a possibility if the vote was split because of the political ramifications of the bill being struck down. In short I thought he’d vote in favour to be a peacemaker (of sorts!). So, Roberts has backed Obama and potentially lost a lot of support from conservatives. Make no mistake, this could easily be the most important decision he makes as Chief Justice and it will certainly appear in his obituary.    

It could also affect the future make-up of the Court. Kennedy has shifted to the right, Roberts has debatably moved to the middle. Any death/retirement on the bench in the next few years could be very interesting as the President aims to appoint a supportive Justice and gain favourable decisions.

So Obamacare stands and will help shape the electoral campaigns of Obama and Romney. It will be a crucial element, potentially as important as the economy, as the two candidates argue their way to November. I look forward to seeing the ramifications of the Supreme Court’s decision over the next few months

Debate warmly encouraged