1. Candidates: I won’t go through all the candidates but 4
got most of the press – Sarkozy, Le Pen, Hollande and Melenchon. Sarkozy was
President and so was in the almost-always tough situation of an incumbent
defending his decisions. The other three could make claims without fear of a
backlash on their record. Le Pen ran a clever campaign having distanced the far-right
FN from its more far-far-right elements and made the party far more acceptable
since her Father’s success in 200. Melachon was, like Le Pen, never going to
win but made an important contribution by mobilising the hard-left against the
government cuts and economic conservatism. And Hollande won a bruising primary
process(even winning the support of his long term partner Segolene Royale) with
a clear mandate and an obvious aim – attack Sarkozy on the economy and win over
the left wing.
2. Sarkozy: Monsieur le President failed in the late part of
his service to make up for his earlier part – having appeared aloof and
arrogant and made the role more about power and less about ceremony, he tried
as hard as possible to back track. His attempts were various – Carla Bruni, his
ex-model wife who has caused controversy in the past, kept out of most
campaigning and he tried to appeal to the common man, doing walkabouts in towns
and ‘connecting’ with the electorate. Despite losing the first round to
Hollande he was positive in his campaigning and didn’t give up, always
convinced that he could keep his position. Campaigning on immigration, he hoped
to win over FN supporters in the second round, whilst he hoped that presenting
himself as the only one able to deal with the economy would win over swing
voters. It was all to no avail.
3. Hollande: Hollande’s campaign focused on this last issue
– Sarkozy had been in charge and failed to sort out the economy. Clearly change
was needed and he was the obvious choice. He proposed several policies that seemed
outlandish to many (apparently his 75% tax for the very rich surprised even
some members of his inner circle) but clearly connected with the electorate.
Having never served in office at a national level but been an MP since 1988 he
appeared involved in politics without being to blame for issues. His long
service in the Socialist party also endeared him to many voters who saw a safe
and sure pair of hands. These three elements – determination, perceived trustworthiness
and extravagant policy – have served him well
4. The vote margins: One thing I’ve not heard mentioned by
many news outlets is the margin Hollande secured over Sarkozy in the run-off.
Hollande won by 3.24%. That’s actually a lot closer than it should have been.
Melachon (12% in first round) explicitly called on those who voted for him to
back Hollande in the second round whilst Le Pen (25% in first round) stated she
would but a blank sheet in the ballot box, an implicit guide to the members of
FN who Sarkozy was trying to win over with policy moves on immigration. Now a
lot of FN members no doubt voted for Sarkozy but it is still remarkable that
the vote was that close. Sarkozy was mocked for thinking that he could win
re-election (the ‘he’ll be the first President since Giscard d’Estaing in 1982
to not win re-election’ stat was said so many times I wanted to scream!) and of
course he was proven wrong. But I think many people didn’t expect him to do as well
as he did, hence why the vote gap hasn’t been commented on much. Black
helicopter conspiracy time........or not. No. Move on.
5. The future: Perhaps the most exciting thing to come out
of this is that President-Elect of France was opposed by the Chancellor of
Germany and snubbed by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Any future
discussions on Europe, G10, NATO will inevitably involve them. Could get
awkward!
Along with that however, Hollande approaches issues very
differently than either Merkel or Cameron. It’s the classic right-wing v. left-wing
dialogue issue. They will disagree. And opposition from both the UK and Germany
towards a French leader will not go down well in France, either because their
leader has to back down and appear cowardly or because they will think other
countries (and old enemies) are telling them what to do. Hollande has already
been told by Merkel that the ‘fiscal compact’ (the treaty where European
members promised to behave themselves economically) cannot be changed, a
statement in direct opposition to Hollande who wants to end austerity, create
jobs and lower the pension age. How this develops will be very interesting to
watch over the next few weeks as that will then shape the next few years
Mr Hollande is in power for 5 years starting from mid-May. I
make no judgement on the French people for picking him and totally respect his
right to be President through his election in a free and fair vote. We shall
see if he is able to implement the economic plan which won him power without
interference from other countries or organisations
So, another great election with, I’m sure, many interesting repercussions. I won’t blog regularly on French politics, but I hope you’ve found it interesting
Debate warmly encouraged
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