American election predictions

Posted on my Facebook page on 7th March 2012

So, the time has come to make random assertions and see how wrong I am come the Conventions and the election in November! I'm a big fan of American politics and the whole political system (though I freely admit it is far from perfect!) so below are my thoughts, setting out a few different possibilities:

1. I think the November election will be Romney v. Obama

2 I think that Santorum and Gingrich will stay in the nomination race for as long as possible. Santorum does have a chance of winning the nomination, especially with lots of Southern states coming up. They are suspicious of Romey's Mormonism and big business background and of Gingrich's personal life. Gingrich definitely has a chance but I think Santorums chances are better. Gingrich loves the attention and only needs Santorum to slip up/fall in the polls to get a boost and stay in the race. He needs more money though as at the moment he's only got one biig money backer and that could soon become very clearly wasted money

3. If November is Mitt v Barack, Obama will win. The Republicans are not united in backing Romney and some will find it hard to vote for him.

4. My most controversial prediction and one I haven't heard anyone mention - there is a high chance that Ron Paul will run as a Libertarian. He feels he has popular support through the recent results and he will not support Romney (or Santorum if he does win it). If Paul runs as a third candidate in November, this will split the right-wing vote and hurt Romney's vote, only helping Barak back to the White House.

5. Just to flirt with the most fun option, if the RNC is spilt, Palin will still not have a hope of nomination. The Tea Party is not the force it was and is divided between candidates. The RNC could go to several votes but I suspect Romney will win.

6. If the RNC cannot reach a consensus, another compromise candidate will be prompted to run. I think this will either be Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie. Both are Governors, both are in the headlines, both should have run, both will be popular with Republican heartlands whilst not isolating them from swing voters. My personal choice is Governor Christie of NJ, who I wanted to run for the nomination from the very start

7. Of all the possible candidates, I would have supported Christie. Of all the candidates who ran, I would probably have supported Jon Huntsman (never heard of him? - a sign of how he did in the polls!) He supported gay marriage, which I oppose, but he is fluent in Mandarin which would have been a great help in dealing with the continued rise of China, particularly with the new leaders coming in in China over the next year. Of those still in the race, I would vote for....Santorum. Wait, hear me out. I can feel friends deleting me from FB! All the Republican candidates are terrible, and I would only vote for Santorum if there was a gun against my head AND the bullet was travelling down the barrel. But if I had to vote for one, he would get my vote. Romney is untrustworthy and detached from the electorate with bad policies. His failure to deliver the nomination already with his money and organisation will harm him, as will his negative campaigning (which of course only provides ammo to Obama, either becasue Mitt doesn't win the nomination and they can use his arguments against another, or because he does and they can say he had to stoop to slinging mud at people to get others to like him). Gingrich is two faced and has the charisma of a flat tyre. Ron Paul has policies that might work on paper but actually have no connection with reality. Also he is getting on and hasn't named a Vice Presidential running mate. I'd need to know who that would be before voting for him with confidence!

8. I can't vote, but if I could vote in November I would vote....I don't know. I don't like Obama. I said at the time and I stand by it that he got voted in in 2008 with an empty campaign slogan and by lying to the electorate about the legislation he would pass. Creating national healthcare, closing Guantanamo Bay and bringing in environmental caps were never going to be passed in one 4 year term. He knew that they would cause opposition and would affect the mid-term results so that any bill would struggle to pass in a hostile Congress. If he didn't, he doesn't know America, a disconnect that Romney suffers from as well but for vastly different reasons (opptimistic outlook, a lack of legislative understanding and experience v. wealthy lifestyle and upbringing). His possible moves on guns and the economy will only increase the tension with Republicans in Congress and around the country. All that said, he got many things right with his first term. His healthcare bill is a good thing if flawed and pork-barrelled to the max. His bail out of the Steel Belt was a good thing. His handling of foreign affairs has been ok, though he doesn't have fire in the belly to really stick it to troublesome states/enemies. I don't like Romney for the reasons I've already put down. Amazingly he'll come in (if he wins of course) after a negative campaign and with a Republican majority Congress and yet he has spent remarkably little time outlining what he'd do with that in his favour. To me that is what all the Republican candidates should be talking about, rather than going at each other

9. Only and idiot would guess vote margins in November at this stage. So here goes: If it's Romney v. Obama, 45% - 50% Obama victory. If it's Santorum v. Obama, 53%-44% Obama victory (and a higher percentage of the vote for Obama than in 2008). If its Romney v. Paul v. Obama, 41% - 8% - 49% (provided Paul runs and gets on enough state ballots to count for anything!). None of those figure add up to 100% because there are traditional looney candidates in some states plus people (quite rightly) spoil their ballots. Also it's worth saying that American elections aren't decided on percentage of the vote but on the brilliant electoral college voting system. All bets are off on that. Obama got 7% more of the vote in 2008 yet got 190 (35%) more electoral college votes than his rival Republican candidate John McCain. Crazy stuff!

10. For the record, and to get to 10 points, in 2008 I happily supported McCain....right up to when he picked Palin. After that it was a grudging disappointment with life.

So there we go. If you've made it this far then well done! Things will change over time and no doubt factors will be different by the time we get to November. It just gets more and more exciting!!!