Just a few thoughts below:
1. SO MANY lies!!! – both sides lied so much
at their conventions. Let me give you some highlights:
· Paul Ryan blamed Obama for closing a GM plant
that closed under George W. Bush in 2008 and for a massive deficit he helped
create through legislation he voted for. He also lied about a whole lot of
stuff, including his marathon exploits, but I’ll pass on those
· Romney lied a lot about the econmy and his finance plan but I'll focus on the fact that he lied about Obama’s stance on Israel, when the President has repeatedly back the country in its struggles in the Middle East
· Obama (yes, the Messiah lied!!!) - he promised he had lowered national debt,
when (geek fact alert) he has added more to the US national debt than all the
Presidents from Washington to Reagan combined. He said he wanted ‘leaner’
government when Obamacare will create more government jobs. He lied his way to
the first election win and he’s doing the same again
· Biden – probably lied, I’ve given up listening
to him. Obama really should have dropped him! He did tell a mostly black
audience that Romney’s economic plan would put them in chains....awkward
silence
2. Great speeches, but not by the candidates – Ann Romney,
Michelle Obama, Condoleezza Rice, Chris Christie, Bill Clinton. All of these
speakers were clear, compelling, interesting and insightful. They spoke with
gravitas, emotion and with good sections of light-relief. I would recommend
watching all of them. As for Clint Eastwood, I’m still not sure if that was
brilliant or deranged!
3. Major failings in the candidate’s speeches -
they were SO boring and they didn’t say anything. Romney barely dealt with foreign
policy, Obama seems to have lost his rhetorical flare and gone to Romney’s
anti-charisma classes. He looks tired and will not really be getting a break
with the Middle East blowing up and debate camp already on.
4. BIG mistakes – some bright spark in the GOP
thought it would be a good idea to hold the Convention in Tampa, Florida,
during the hurricane season. Hurricane Isaac comes along and Dems can say ‘a
storm brews’. Meanwhile, somehow the Democrats forgot to include Israel and God
in their platform and when they were added (with Obama’s prompting) they were booed
by delegates. It was a stupid oversight and the TV coverage was an absolute
gift to Republicans
5. Convention Results – Obama is up in the polls through a
stronger convention showing and a better management of the post-Convention hype
(GOP got lost in the joy of Ryan’s economics and the common man got confused).
Currently Obama is 48.5% to Romney’s 45.5% on realclearpolitics.com’s poll average
(I really recommend that site). Staggeringly, the most recent poll on Fox News
gave Obama a 5% lead!!! What was very close a few weeks ago is now a bit of a
gap. Things could change though. A week is a long time in politics....
6. Election
2016 – when Obama wins this year (still think that is going to happen) people
will start talking about the next election.
Possible candidates: GOP -
Romney will be out the race for 2016 as he is too old. Chris Christie made an
obvious plug for himself by barely mentioning Romney in his speech and listing
all his accomplishments. Paul Ryan will lick his wounds and come back in 4
years, though the rate of economic recovery will make or break him. Condoleezza
Rice gave a cracking speech that more that smelt of testing waters but I
suspect for a Senate seat or a Cabinet post, not for a Presidential run, though
far stranger things have happened. Other names to throw in the hat would be Marco
Rubio, Eric Cantor and Mitch Daniels.
For the Democrats - Michelle
Obama’s speech was recognised as brilliant by people across the political
spectrum but she won’t run for office. Hillary Clinton won’t be Secretary of
State for Obama’s second term and Bill Clinton is clearly back in favour having
taken a high billing at the Convention so she could run with Obama’s support
(maybe a deal’s been done....ohhhh, black helicopter time). Anthony Cuomo would
have a good run, as could Martin O’Malley (Governors of NY and Maryland
respectively). Some have mentioned Julian Castro as a contender as he spoke at
the Convention and ‘did an Obama’ by standing out. He is ‘only’ Mayor of San
Antonio and whilst he would mobilise the Hispanic vote he would struggle
without national headlines for the next two years. I suspect he’ll run for
Congress and play the long game as Texas’ electoral votes come into play in the
next 10-20 years.
In short, in a completely
haphazard way I will predict a (Hillary) Clinton v. Paul Ryan election, but
would love it to be Chris Christie instead of Ryan and for him to be the 45th
President of the USA
7. Who do I support? – it gets increasingly
difficult. I can’t stand a lot of what is coming out of the Romney camp as it
stinks of economic incompetence and a massive superiority complex. At the same
time Obama is lying and supports gay marriage and abortion rights, the first of
which I flat out disagree with him on, the second of which I would want to be
tightened and would want federal funding removed. It is really hard!! Gun to my
head, probably Obama, and I winced when I typed it even though I’m sat on my
own. Do not think of that as being anywhere near a ringing endorsement. Why didn’t Chris Christie run!!!
8.
Other – yeah, running short on imagination. No particular
order:
· Fun quote – ex-Ohio Gov.
Ted Strickland: "Mitt Romney has so little economic patriotism that even
his money needs a passport. It summers on the beaches of the Cayman Islands and
winters on the slopes of the Swiss Alps." Zing
· Tax returns – still no news
from Romney (see a previous entry). There is a fun video going round making fun
of Romney. As a warning it’s probably inappropriate for Christian girls and
children. For blokes it causes anger and mild depression!
· As I’ve mentioned before, Romney is a Mormon. I
need to write a proper blog entry on this but as a heads up, a BIG news story could be brewing. In
brief, Mormons go to ‘temples’ to do rites for their eternity and for the dead.
‘Temples’ are one of the many reasons why Mormons are not Christians. The rites
involve baptism and (separately) going through special combinations of
handshakes to enter a ‘Celestial Room’, supposedly a foreshadowing of heaven.
They do this dressed in white suits with robes and green aprons on. Sorry, not
done that justice but I’ll get back to it. Anyhoo, a group of people have been
slowly releasing secretly recorded temple rites onto Youtube for the past few
months and on the 23rd September promise to release footage of
Romney in temple garb. I think if that does happen and the videos make the
headlines, it could affect Romney’s polling, especially amongst Evangelicals
and Catholics. The Youtube channel is ‘newnamenoah’ and I’ll put a link below. Clink on his name for more videos and look out on the 23rd September.
· Romney thinks a middle class income is upwards
of $200,000 when the US census info would draw the line at $100,00. When your
campaign runs on tax cuts for the middle class and has done its sums on tax
breaks using a middle class income, you want to make sure you define the middle
class correctly. A whole lot of money in tax revenue/tax breaks for investment
is lost when you realise that the man who wants to support the middle class as
Romney defines it really only has 2% of the population in mind
Finally, a notice: As a fun bet with friends I will post my predictions, state by state, for election night one month in advance (the night of October 6th). Most will not be a surprise (Utah for the Republicans, Washington for the Democrats, GASP!!) but it will be fun making calls in the famous swing states. I’ll also get a primer put together on all you need to know on swing states and all the facts the news media come out with for the last 2 days before the election (‘the last time Wisconsin went for a left-handed Democrat who supported a squirrel cull in the 7th District was when Teddy Roosevelt’s putting average...’ yada yada snore)
As always, debate warmly encouraged
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