‘He shall from time to time give to Congress information of the State of the Union and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient’
Interestingly there is no requirement for it to be annual or for it to be a speech, though both elements are now well established (early Presidents, most famously Thomas Jefferson, often sent a letter to Congress rather than go there themselves).
The President will have one eye towards the 2014 mid-term elections, after which he will most likely face a hostile Congress. This will be one of his last opportunities to clearly tell the legislative branch of government what he wants to achieve with it still be likely. So what is Obama likely to talk about?
1. The economy
It of course goes without saying that Obama will have to address the economy, especially as this is his main public chance to challenge the GOP politicians who want to make cuts everywhere. Having resolved the ‘fiscal cliff’ in January Obama goes in on a high but he must be wary of any talk of high government spending when people are increasingly aware of the rising national deficit. Obama will have to tread this one carefully.
2. Foreign Policy
Perhaps the most famous US foreign policy statement, the Monroe Doctrine, was announced in a State of the Union address (guess by which President!!) and ever since then the speech has been used to outline the President’s take on foreign affairs. Obama will definitely touch on Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria and couldn’t get away without mentioned North Korea and the recent nuclear test. Expect strong (and correct) tributes to the troops and an announcement of troop withdrawal in line with his election promises, fluff on Syria and words of condemnation and calls for UN action (possibly sanctions) on North Korea.
3. Gun control
During the speech Michele Obama will be sat with the parents of a girl who performed in a band at Obama’s second inauguration but who has since been shot dead. Obama’s calls to change magazine size and limit access to assault weapons are not popular but the President will certainly ask for those changes to come in. They won’t (because too many politicians need the NRA and because Americans love their guns and are suspicious of government action) but he will still make the call, hoping he can convince people to join his side.
4. Immigration
Having come up in the election Obama will again want to make his views clear, wanting at the very least for the majority of all children of illegal immigrants to be given citizenship. Cynically this can be seen as a vote winner for future Democrats in southern, currently Republican, states. Obama will instead paint the familiar picture of his diverse origins and the blessings of a mixed society. Americans will want this resolved but it is yet again a topic that divides the nation.
5. Fringe
issues
I suspect Obama will touch on climate change and not gay
marriage. This is because there will be major military top brass at the event
and, having only just sorted out ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ he will not want them
to be seen either clapping or sitting still when their Commander-in-Chief commits
to supporting this legislation. Climate change is an easier drum to bang, even
though many representatives are opposed to the idea, and Obama will want to be
heard to be clear on this matter before 2014.
The Republicans are offered the chance to respond to the
Speech and the honour will this year be given to Marco Rubio, the man (in my
opinion) Romney should have put on his ticket. Rubio is also a very strong
contender for the GOP Presidential nomination in 3 years time and so will
certainly take this opportunity to lay in to Obama and set out his stall as a
fiscal conservative. His run for the White House starts tonight.
Finally, as a side note, if you want a fun game, count the
number of standing ovations. Many of the sentences the President utters will receive
an ovation and Senators and Congressman famously try to sound enthusiastic
early on whilst saving their hands for later on. Last year there were 41, 17 of
them from both sides of the house. My guess this year is a few less, maybe 35
or so, but we shall have to see.
Debate warmly encouraged
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