As I’ve blogged about before, President Obama faced budget
problems earlier in the year, hampered by the separated system in the US that
traditionally creates a Congress and a Presidency split across party lines. On
that occasion he was able to broker a deal, but the ideological divide on
spending between the Republican House leadership and the President has meant no
such solution has been found to this round of cuts.
As such, at the start of March, Obama was forced to (he made
it very clear he didn’t want to) sign into law cuts to the federal budget that
amount to $1.2 trillion in the next 10 years. This being the federal
level of government, the cuts affect everything from defence to national parks
to housing support. This however only signified the start of such cuts – for
example, due to a bill Obama is set to sign any day now, $85 billion will be
cut in the next 7 months. So sweeping are the cuts that the White House has had
to close down tours of the building to save money ($74,000 per week, though why
they couldn’t cut down the number of guests at the Easter Egg Roll I’m not
sure).
These cuts are sweeping and they reveal at least two things
about the future of Obama’s second term. Firstly, they will either make or
break the GOP chances for dominance in the 2014 mid-term elections.
Traditionally a time to register issues with a 2nd term President
and the opportunity to make him a ‘lame duck’, the GOP will be hoping the
elections bring in more Republicans and help them shape legislature to a more
conservative agenda. However, Obama’s clear reticence to agree to these cuts
means he could win people round - voters will see that budget cuts lead to
people being out of work and so could oppose raising the GOP membership of the
House of Representatives.
The second implication is on Obama’s campaign promises.
Having said in 2012 that he would bring in a global warming law, cut college
fees and lower the national debt, Obama now faces economic hurdles and a confident
hostility in the Capitol. As he seeks to shape his legacy he will need to
manage these issues and balance out different demands. Similar to 2008, he won’t
be able to keep all his promises, but those who supported him with their vote
will want to see some of them enacted despite the difficult situation.
The way both sides of the political divide manage this
situation will therefore have far-reaching effects, from the mid-terms in 2014
to the actions of whoever occupies the White House from 2017. Whether they’ll
be bothered by tourists looking round their house is certainly one of the less
important considerations.
Debate warmly encouraged
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