Initial US Presidential Election Predictions

So, below are my initial predictions for the 2012 US Presidential Election. I've done this in conjunction with my good pal and fellow geek Joe Williams  (http://wordsof50.blogspot.co.uk/). We are both publishing our thoughts today and neither of us knows what the other is going to predict.  I’ll explain what I’ve done but first let me outline a crucial difference between UK and US elections:

 

Winning the Election - The Electoral College

 

The US Presidential election is NOT decided on the percentage of the vote a candidate has. Instead, voters in each state vote for the candidate they support and then that state (on the whole) announces who the majority of the votes cast were for. However, a candidate does not add up states to win (i.e. first to 26 states). Instead, through a system known as the Electoral College, each state is allotted a number of Electoral College votes based on the state’s population (Montana is a MASSIVE amount of land and only has 3 votes, New York is roughly half the size geographically but because of a much higher population it has 29 votes).

 

For those who want to know, there are a couple of complications. Firstly, two states, Nebraska and Maine, share out their votes between candidates by Congressional District, so whilst Obama lost Nebraska in 2008, he still won one of its electoral votes for winning in its 2^nd Congressional District. The second complication is that the District of Columbia, whilst not a state (it’s the home of Washington, D.C. and therefore the White House, Congress etc and its position as its own District is protected in the US Constitution) is allowed to vote and wields so 3 electoral college votes. I don't think either of these will be issues though. I have given Maine as a whole to Obama and Nebraska as a whole to Romney. DC will go Democrat

 

In most states a candidate wins ALL that states votes through winning the popular vote and adds them to his total. This year the total number of votes is 538, so a candidate needs 270 votes to win. Remember that – 270 is the magic number

 

If you want to know more (or you can’t sleep) the official report on the Electoral College can be found at http://www.eac.gov/assets/1/Documents/The%20Electoral%20College%20(Jan.%202011).pdf

 

So, hopefully you’re still reading after that thrilling introduction. Below are 3 tables. Several states are guaranteed wins for Romney – they are coloured in red, are found in the second table and give him 154 votes. Several states are guaranteed wins for Obama – they are coloured in blue, are found in the third table and total 186 votes. The crucial table though is the first one, where I’ve outlined all those states that are still on the table for both candidates. These are those states considered pretty certain bets and the so-called ‘swing states’. I’ve either given them an ‘L’, for ‘leaning’, or a ‘P’, which stands for ‘predicted’.

 

My conclusion is a win for Obama with 319 votes, well over the 270 needed

 

Let me though add two points

 

Firstly, there are several states still in play. I have called Ohio and Florida for Obama and Virginia for Romney. I cannot sure though that any of that will actually happen!!

 

Secondly, if a week is a long time in politics, a month is..is...an even longer time in politics (well done Mark, really profound). I’m not saying this is definitely what will happen. I’m saying that I think if the election was held in the next few days this is a possible result. We have had one debate that Obama definitely lost. Incumbents never do well in the first debate. The next two debates will be interesting to watch especially as the last one focuses solely on foreign policy, a known weak point for Romney.

 

Anyway, enough of me. Have a look at the figures below and let me know what you think

 

Debate warmly encouraged

 

The tables

Arizona	11	L
Colorado	9	P
Florida	29	P
Indiana	11	L
Iowa	6	P
Michigan	16	L
Minnesota	10	L
Missouri	10	L
Nevada	6	P
New Hampshire	4	P
New Mexico	5	L
North Carolina	15	P
Ohio	18	P
Pennsylvania	20	L
Virginia	13	P
West Virginia	5	P
Wisconsin	10	P
	198

Romney

Alabama	9
Alaska	3
Arkansas	6
Georgia	16
Idaho	4
Kansas	6
Kentucky	8
Louisiana	8
Mississippi	6
Montana	3
Nebraska*	5
North Dakota	3
Oklahoma	7
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
Wyoming	3
	154
	+ 3 leaning = 186
	+ 3 predicted = 219

Obama

California	55
Connecticut	7
Delaware	3
Hawaii	4
Illinois	20
Maine*	4
Maryland	10
Massachusetts	11
New Jersey	14
New York	29
Oregon	7
Rhode Island	4
Vermont	3
Washington	12
District of Columbia#	3
	186
	+ 4 leaning = 237
	+ 7 predicted = 319