Second Attempt – US Election Predictions

As before, below are 3 tables. Several states are guaranteed wins for Romney – they are coloured in red, are found in the second table and give him 154 votes. Several states are guaranteed wins for Obama – they are coloured in blue, are found in the third table and total 186 votes. The crucial table though is the first one, where I’ve outlined all those states that are still on the table for both candidates. These are those states considered pretty certain bets and the so-called ‘swing states’. I’ve either given them an ‘L’, for ‘leaning’, or a ‘P’, which stands for ‘predicted’.

Changes

There is no doubt some changes have taken place, so I’ve now given Florida (29 EC votes) and Colorado (9) to Romney. I’ve also changed the voting status of West Virginia from a prediction to leaning to GOP, meaning I’m more certain this is the way that state will go. The other status change is Wisconsin to leaning Democrat, so again I’m saying the result there seems a bit clearer

My conclusion is a win for Obama with 281 votes, just over the 270 votes needed

 

Reasoning

 

My first prediction had Obama winning with 319 votes, well over the 270 needed. My thinking then was that Obama didn’t need to win by much in a few states to get a large majority (though still nothing like the whipping he gave McCain in 2008). And that is still true. However, the reverse is also a possibility – Romney could scrape a few states to take it to the wire. And that seems to be more like what is happening. Romney has managed to catch Obama on the economy and to sow enough seeds of doubt in the minds of swing voters to make them think that he has the answers and that the President will only bring more trouble.

 

I suspect this message will most strike home in Florida, with its large elderly population, and in Colorado, where Romney has managed to move from a 5% deficit in September to a dead heat contest. Indeed the races in Colorado and Nevada are still close enough to mean any current poll results are well within the margins of error. Romney’s route to the White House could well go through the mid-West.

 

I think Obama still has a fair chance in Florida, especially with its large Hispanic population, but I’ve given it to Romney for now to make things more interesting. I’ve also given him Colorado as I suspect his quick rise on the polls there will continue unless there is a major hiccup.

 

So those are my thoughts for now. As I said before, this is a hard and yet easy game to play – you can put hours of research in and yet still recognise that everything could change in a few hours, no matter in the  days left to the election.

 

Debate warmly encouraged

 

Arizona	11	L
Colorado	9	P
Florida	29	P
Indiana	11	L
Iowa	6	P
Michigan	16	L
Minnesota	10	L
Missouri	10	L
Nevada	6	P
New Hampshire	4	P
New Mexico	5	L
North Carolina	15	P
Ohio	18	P
Pennsylvania	20	L
Virginia	13	P
West Virginia	5	L
Wisconsin	10	L
	198

 

Romney

Alabama	9
Alaska	3
Arkansas	6
Georgia	16
Idaho	4
Kansas	6
Kentucky	8
Louisiana	8
Mississippi	6
Montana	3
Nebraska*	5
North Dakota	3
Oklahoma	7
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
Wyoming	3
	154
	+ 4 leaning = 186
	+ 4 predicted = 257

 

Obama

California	55
Connecticut	7
Delaware	3
Hawaii	4
Illinois	20
Maine*	4
Maryland	10
Massachusetts	11
New Jersey	14
New York	29
Oregon	7
Rhode Island	4
Vermont	3
Washington	12
District of Columbia#	3
	186
	+ 5 leaning = 237
	+ 4 predicted = 281

 * Nebraska and Maine divide their EC votes but I don't think that will happen this election

# Washington DC isn't a state but still gets EC votes